Research
Air quality and climate
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Introduction
Atmospheric emissions due to human activities have an impact on both climate and air quality. Emissions may have an impact on the radiation budget of the atmospere, by acting directly as a greenhouse gas (ozone), by reflecting or absorbing radiation (particulate matter) or by an effect on cloud formation and properties. In return, climate change will have an impact on air quality. Higher temperatures will enhance chemical reactions, which will lead to higher ozone concentrations, wind has an impact on transport and ventilation and precipitation is an important removal process.
The complex interplay between climate and air quality implies that the effect of emission reductions may be beneficial for climate but adverse for air quality and vice versa, and that local effects may be different from global effects.
Coupling of LOTOS-EUROS to a regional climate model
One of the key tools to investigate the impact of a changing climate on air quality and vice versa is through integrative modelling of climate and air quality. Such integrative modelling can be attained by a coupling of climate models with chemistry transport models. To use LOTOS-EUROS for climate change studies, it was coupled to the regional climate model RACMO. At the moment this is a one-way coupling, in which the meteorology from RACMO is used to drive LOTOS-EUROS. A transient climate scenario run was performed for the period 1970-2060 under the flag of the Dutch programme Knowledge for Climate Research Programme co-financed by the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM). This run is currently being analysed, with special attention for bias characterization. The study will be completed with additional runs in the near future. The natural following step would be to introduce air quality information obtained with LOTOS-EUROS as an input for climate scenario runs with RACMO, to investigate the feedback aspects of aerosol concentrations on climate.
Emission scenarios
Apart from the impact of climate change, the impact of emissions scenarios must be investigated for a complete assessment of future air quality. In the 7th Framework Programme, project EnerGEO aims to provide a versatile modelling platform that will enable planners, environmentalists and governments to calculate, forecast and monitor the environmental impact of changes in the energy mix on local, regional and global scales. One of the most importants aspects of EnerGEO is to move towards an increased understanding of the consequences of various energy transition scenarios.
Other links: Knowledge for Climate (official webpage, webpage TNO)