Research
Air quality forecasting
Ozone forecasting example (MACC)
Introduction
Owing to air pollution and its adverse health effects, the demand for useful information on the current and future air quality is ever growing.
In collaboration with KNMI and RIVM, TNO is providing daily forecasts of ozone, NO2 and PM (particulate matter) over Europe and
the Netherlands. The forecasts are based on calculations from the LOTOS-EUROS chemistry transport model and observations of
pollutant concentrations over Europe. Currently only groundbased observations are used, however in the near future observations from
satellites will be included.
Air quality forecasting for Europe
The use of satellite observation data plays an important role in the development of effective monitoring systems. Within the European GMES programme funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the EU, combined efforts are being taken to establish a European capacity for Earth Observation. As part of the GMES programme, MACC - Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate - is the intitiative for a core operational atmospheric service over Europe. As of May first, TNO also partners in the downstream air quality services project called PasoDoble also falling under the GMES programme.
MACC
MACC provides data records on atmospheric composition for recent years, data for monitoring present conditions and forecasts of the distribution of key constituents for a few days ahead.
MACC combines state-of-the-art atmospheric modelling with Earth observation data to provide information services covering European Air Quality, Global Atmospheric Composition, Climate, and UV and Solar Energy.
Within MACC TNO provides a daily forecast of air quality from the LOTOS-EUROS model, which is included in the ensemble of forecasts of six other models (Chimere, EMEP model, EURAD, MATCH, MOCAGE and SILAM) for European Air Quality. Analyses and 3-day forecasts of European air quality are provided in near-real-time. The seven regional air quality models taking part have provided their own forecast based on the same boundary conditions and emissions. This provides an ensemble of forecasts, which can be used to assess the uncertainty of the forecast.
Project: MACC (webpage TNO, official webpage)
PasoDoble
The EU project Promote Air quality Services integrating Observations -Development Of Basic Localised Information for Europe -otherwise known as PASODOBLE - aims to set up a number of sustainable services to communicate information on air quality and its adverse health effects to citizens, municipalities and organisations.
By combining ground and satellite measurements with models, services are being developed for local and regional applications.
As the coordinator of the IC-AIRSHEDS work package, TNO is playing a major role in the project. Within this work package, air quality analyses and predictions will be delivered on a scale of 6 km by 6 km for four areas within Europe.
Project: Pasodoble (webpage TNO, official webpage)
Ozone forecasting for the Netherlands
Example of ozone forecasting (SMOGprog project)
SmogProg
In close connection to the development of air quality forecasting instruments for Europe (ESA-GMES project PROMOTE, EU FP6 GMES project GEMS, EU FP7 GMES project MACC) the Dutch SmogProg project aims to develop and demonstrate an operational system to improve on the existing smog forecasts in the Netherlands. SmogProg is a coorporative project between the RIVM, KNMI and TNO. Based on ground-based and satellite measurements, assimilated in the LOTOS-EUROS model, this system, called SMOGPROG, produces diagnostic and prognostic air quality data. The 24 and 48 hours advance prognosis data are used for the official dialy smog forecast for the Netherlands as issued by RIVM (see webpage of RIVM). Next to serving as a basis for smog forcasts, the SMOGPROG data will also be applied to communicate the forecast to civil authorities and the public.
Project: SmogProg (official webpage RIVM)